Justus For All

CNN:

President Bush heads into the Republican National Convention next week with a small lead over Democratic challenger John Kerry in the all-important Electoral College, according to a new CNN analysis of state polling, advertising buys and interviews with campaign strategists and neutral analysts.

Bush would receive 274 electoral votes to Kerry’s 264 if the election were held today, less than 10 weeks before November 2 and three days before the opening of the GOP convention in Madison Square Garden. If Kerry were to pick up a state as small as Nevada, the electoral vote would be tied, throwing the election into the House of Representatives.

Of course this doesn’t mean much at this stage. A couple weeks ago things were looking pretty good for Kerry and they might again a few weeks from now. The Republican Convention, the Debates, and any wild card events (esp. a terrorist attack) can all have dramatic effect on the way things will go.

One thing about Polls I have been wondering lately, it is commonly accepted that the likely voter number is a more accurate predicter than the registered voter. How accurate is the likely voter number though? By this I mean, does the percentage of people voting match the percentage who say they are likely voters? I have never heard anyone discuss this and it would be interesting to know.

Along those same lines, I wonder if, as I expect, the polling results show people are more likely to vote this year than in previous elections.