Debate Night
A lot of people are saying that tonights debate may well determine the election. I think that there is still plenty of time for things to change, but I agree that this is the last best chance for the candidates.
I’ll try to take off my partisan hat for a moment and give a critique on what I think each of the candidates needs to do, and what their weaknesses/troubles might be.
George Bush: Bush needs to project confidence (something he is good at) without appearing arrogant (something he is less good at). Continueing the convention established theme of being deeply concerned out sending our soldiers off to war will be a good strong point too. Bush probably also needs to show he is aware that everything is not going well. Appearing clueless as to the true state of things could play very badly, especially in the post-debate spin.
One possible problem for him might be North Korea. The diplomatic strategy is to refuse to treat this as a crises so that NK won’t feel they have the power to drive a hard bargin. Treating this as not a crises in the debate may cause W. too seem out of touch. Iran is less of a problem (debate wise) and I doubt Bush will have any trouble with questions on this topic.
John Kerry: Kerry needs to clearly define his positions. He has to be direct and at least appear honest and sincere about what he says. Nuance and waffling will probably not play well. He needs to show that he is strong and committed to winning the war on terror.
Kerry’s biggest problem here is that his base is split. If he goes too pro-war he risks losing support of his base and if he goes too ant-war he risks driving independants to Bush. This makes it tough to spell out a clear policy. Added to this, is the flip-flop charge seems to be sticking in the mind of voters and whatever tack he takes can probably be characterized as a flip-flop. Kerry also has to disconnect himself from Europe/the U.N. most Americans want America to be in charge of our foreign policy. Allies are good, but in our mind we should be in the drivers seat.
Kerry’s challenge tonight is probably much greater than Bush’s. First, he has a more difficult task, as described above, secondly he is currently behind so a ‘tie’ isn’t good enough. Bush isn’t the world’s greatest debator, but he is very good at connecting with ordinary people, which is what these debates are mostly about, so a Kerry victory on points won’t be good enough.
I plan on watching the debates tonight and I will blog my reaction.
