Comments on: U.S. vs China http://www.davejustus.com/2005/11/23/us-vs-china/ None Sine Causa Thu, 08 Dec 2011 17:56:50 +0000 hourly 1 http://wordpress.org/?v=3.0.4 By: Dave Justus http://www.davejustus.com/2005/11/23/us-vs-china/comment-page-1/#comment-1968 Dave Justus Wed, 23 Nov 2005 18:25:00 +0000 http://www.davejustus.com/2005/11/23/us-vs-china/#comment-1968 I don't know that you are correct in a when rather than an if. If current rates continue, Chinese GDP per capita will be 20% of the U.S. in eight years and it's GDP will be half of the the U.S. in about 10 years. I highly doubt that China will be able to continue it's economic expansion at current rates anywhere near that long though, and given it's rapidly aging population it doesn't have unlimited time to catch up before demographic problems become a severe drain on productivity. Regardless of that however, I am not sure what the threat of that is. I suppose it would concievably make economic damage equal for both parties, but assuming that China continues to use exports as it's primary engine for growth I would expect that China would still be hurt more by an economic war. As far as millions of chinese arriving in ships, I am quite sure we would just turn them back. Personally, I would be happy to take them in but nativist sympathy would probably prevent that from happening. I am not sure what the threat is there, unless China was able to ship enough people to create a majority who also wanted pro-China and/or anti-democratic policies I don't see what the threat is. However, non-military invasion does seem to be in the Chinese repretoire toward a target more suitable to that tactic. There are numerous illegal chinese settlers moving into Siberia, and it seems to me that China is encouraging this policy. I didn't cover a Siberian war in this post, which would occur under the pretext of defending what will become a Chinese majority. China could I believe 'win' such a conflict, barring a Russian decision to go nuclear. I don’t know that you are correct in a when rather than an if. If current rates continue, Chinese GDP per capita will be 20% of the U.S. in eight years and it’s GDP will be half of the the U.S. in about 10 years. I highly doubt that China will be able to continue it’s economic expansion at current rates anywhere near that long though, and given it’s rapidly aging population it doesn’t have unlimited time to catch up before demographic problems become a severe drain on productivity.

Regardless of that however, I am not sure what the threat of that is. I suppose it would concievably make economic damage equal for both parties, but assuming that China continues to use exports as it’s primary engine for growth I would expect that China would still be hurt more by an economic war.

As far as millions of chinese arriving in ships, I am quite sure we would just turn them back. Personally, I would be happy to take them in but nativist sympathy would probably prevent that from happening. I am not sure what the threat is there, unless China was able to ship enough people to create a majority who also wanted pro-China and/or anti-democratic policies I don’t see what the threat is.

However, non-military invasion does seem to be in the Chinese repretoire toward a target more suitable to that tactic. There are numerous illegal chinese settlers moving into Siberia, and it seems to me that China is encouraging this policy. I didn’t cover a Siberian war in this post, which would occur under the pretext of defending what will become a Chinese majority. China could I believe ‘win’ such a conflict, barring a Russian decision to go nuclear.

]]> By: The probligo http://www.davejustus.com/2005/11/23/us-vs-china/comment-page-1/#comment-1967 The probligo Wed, 23 Nov 2005 17:51:00 +0000 http://www.davejustus.com/2005/11/23/us-vs-china/#comment-1967 Just remember as you follow that line of thought that there are more than simple military means to gain control of another country. Imagine for a moment the impact that China would have on the US when (not if) it reaches the point where GDP per population is, say, half of that of the US. At present it is about 20% I think. Or if the total GDP of China gets to exceed that of the US. Another thought for you. Non-military invasion. How would the US react to shipload after shipload of Chinese civilians arriving off Hawaii, Washington and Oregon? Let's say 1 million illegals in ships in Honalulu, Vancouver and SanFran in the space of a year... Just remember as you follow that line of thought that there are more than simple military means to gain control of another country.

Imagine for a moment the impact that China would have on the US when (not if) it reaches the point where GDP per population is, say, half of that of the US. At present it is about 20% I think. Or if the total GDP of China gets to exceed that of the US.

Another thought for you.

Non-military invasion. How would the US react to shipload after shipload of Chinese civilians arriving off Hawaii, Washington and Oregon? Let’s say 1 million illegals in ships in Honalulu, Vancouver and SanFran in the space of a year…

]]>