Diplomatic games
This bit from a 2006 predictions article in the International Herald Tribune sums up the diplomatic strategies on Iranian nukes nicely:
The Europeans keep talking in order to give the Iranians a chance to show how truly belligerent and uncompromising they are, and thereby to isolate Tehran from the countries that form its natural constituency, most importantly Russia and China, the two permanent Security Council members who, until now, have been opposed to sanctions.The Iranian game is the inverse: it is to keep talking, and to throw in the occasional concession, to provide some hope that the negotiations can succeed – an example being the announcement Wednesday in Tehran that Iran would give the so-called Russian ideas to enrich Iran’s uranium in Russia and re-export it to Iran “enthusiastic” study.
Iran wants to give Russia, China and the nonaligned countries that form Iran’s home group the pretext they all prefer in any case, to maintain business as usual, rather than move to sanctions that will hurt them at least as much as they hurt Iran.
I am pretty sure that Iran has a stronger hand in this than Europe does. Simply put, China and Russia probably need Iran’s friendship (and oil) more than they fear Iranian nukes.
Even if sanctions were to be enacted, it is highly doubtful that such action would halt Iranian development of nuclear weapons.
