Palestine
Forbes has a pretty good overview of the effects of the Hamas victory in the Palestinian elections. This bit here matches my expectations:
Avi Dichter, a former Israeli security services chief, said he didn’t expect terror to rise once Hamas takes over.
“The moment they become partner to the Palestinian government, reality will become a lot more complicated for them than it was when they were a terror organization alone,” Dichter told Army Radio.
“I think it would be illogical – even insane – for them to toe the extremist line they have been following until now,” he added. “I think we need to wait and see if common sense dictates.”
Economic constraints are also likely to curb Hamas’ extremism. With the Palestinian Authority dependent on foreign aid for its survival and on Israel for day-to-day needs such as electricity, water and the movement of people and goods, Hamas will have a hard time ignoring international calls to renounce violence.
One question I have been mulling over is what our minimum demands should be of Hamas for us to consider negotiations with them and contnue aid to the Palestinian Authority.
First off, Hamas must renounce violence as means of achieving their goals. This is non-negotiable. I don’t know whether they can take that step or not, but it is something we cannot compromise on.
The second thing about Hamas that is a problem is that they have continually called for the destruction of Israel. I think that if they are smart, they can alter this a bit, keep some of their core principles and be acceptable. Rather than calling for the destruction of Israel, they can advocate a one state solution, achieved through peaceful means with representation for all people. This would of course be a Palestinian majority state, and would, if achieved, be the end of Israel as a Jewish state.
I don’t want this end to be achieved, and Israel would never go for it, but I would be willing to deal with a group that advocated this as long as they were committed to non-violent means of achieving this goal. The fact that it has no prospects of occuring shouldn’t be a hinderance to Hamas, as they really have no prospects of destroying Israel through violence either.
There is some indications that Hamas is able to bend this far:
Hamas ideology does not recognize the presence of a Jewish state in an Islamic Middle East. In recent years, however, some Hamas leaders have grudgingly accepted the idea of a Palestinian state in the West Bank and Gaza, as long as it is understood to be only a stage toward freeing all of Palestine – including Israel.
The big question of course is will Hamas renounce violence or not. I suspect that heated debates on that issue are currently taking place in the inner circles of Hamas leadership.
Update: Gib has interesting thoughts on this as well.



[...] Hamas who is really an islamic terrorist organisation-come-political-party has formed a government, which will in part make decisions on Gaza and West Bank. [...]