Japan, North Korea and China
Japan said Monday it was considering whether a pre-emptive strike on the North’s missile bases would violate its constitution, signaling a hardening stance ahead of a possible U.N. Security Council vote on Tokyo’s proposal for sanctions against the regime.While Japan talked of sanctions, China — North Korea’s top ally and benefactor — pressed ahead with its diplomatic efforts to draw North Korea back to stalled six-nation talks on its nuclear weapons program, dispatching a high-profile delegation to Pyongyang on Monday.
My guess is that Japan’s ruminations about a pre-emptive strike have seriously gotten China’s attention, not because Japan would at this time threaten China in any way but because China really, really doesn’t want to see a return of a militarisic Japan.
North Korea will almost certainly ignore any threats from Japan itself, but if China begins putting serious pressure on Kim Jong Il’s regime than they will be forced to pay attention.
Sadly, there is no sure safe way to deal with North Korea. The best we can hope for is complete collapse with minimal effects on the surrounding nations. The worst of course is absolutely horrible to contemplate.
A militarizing Japan is the best hope for any positive development on North Korea. China clearly couldn’t give a crap about how North Korea threatens its neighbors or treats its people, but the prospect that they’re making Japan re-arm may finally get the only nation North Korea pretends to listen to off their asses.
The problem will come when North Korea says that any act other than shutting up and sending them aid is an act of war. (Which they will probably say at some point.)