Fighting heats up
Hezbollah shattered two days of relative calm in northern Israel on Wednesday, spraying the region with more than 230 rockets that set buildings and forests ablaze, wounded at least 33 civilians and killed a man as he rode his bicycle in front of his home.As Hezbollah launched its largest barrage of the 3-week-old conflict, Israeli forces shelled Lebanese border villages and launched air strikes, while several thousand troops continued their sweep through the south, clashing with Hezbollah in at least 11 towns. Israeli planes hit dozens of targets before dawn today, including strikes on Beirut’s southern suburbs, the first in nearly a week.
One Israeli soldier was killed and nine wounded in Wednesday’s fighting and rocket attacks. No information about Hezbollah casualties was available.
The Israeli campaign in the Gaza Strip heated up as well. Overnight, troops and tanks made their deepest push into southern Gaza of the nearly 6-week-old offensive there. At least three Palestinians were reported killed.
One of the longer-range rockets that Hezbollah calls the Khaibar-1 crashed into a rocky field near Jenin in the northern West Bank, 43 miles from the Lebanon border — the first rocket strike by Hezbollah on the West Bank.
Israeli officials and commanders and Lebanese officials said Wednesday that the radical Shiite Muslim group has suffered heavy losses during Israel’s onslaught.
One of the dangers is that Hezbollah will be able to turn a military defeat into victory. I think Israel has a great grasp of the tacticle situation in Lebanon, and will win every battle, but its alienation of more moderate Lebanese shows less sophistication in its grasp of long term strategy. A militarily weakened Hezbollah with more popular support is probably more dangerous than Hezbollah was before the conflict began.
That being said, I don’t think Hezbollah is terribly happy with the situation either. While Hezbollah obviously wanted to provoke an Israeli response, I don’t think they wanted as vigorous a response as they got.
There remains an opportunity to for long term improvement of the situation. Finese in needed in countering the pro-Hezbollah feelings of many ordinary Lebanese who are shocked, and angry, at Israel’s attacks. We have to change the equation from the humiliation of Lebanon, to its triumph. That can be done, but almost certainly Israel cannot do it. Whether the internation community will get involved, as it needs to, remains an open question.
This piece from the Sydney Morning Herald though provides some evidence that it may be too late for that:
LEBANON’S acting Foreign Minister, Tarek Mitri, doubts that his government would agree to a European-led intervention force in southern Lebanon, citing fierce opposition from Hezbollah and its key backers, Syria and Iran.
Mr Mitri said Hezbollah’s political standing in Lebanon had been greatly enhanced during its three-week battle with Israel, and that its views on the size and mandate of an international force would have to be taken into account. He said “no solution” to the violence could be found without the participation of Syria and Iran in the search for a political settlement.
“Hezbollah’s resisting so forcefully to Israel has raised their popularity,” Mr Mitri said in New York on Wednesday, where he lobbied the US and other countries to support an immediate ceasefire. “No one has exact information on what impact it has had on their military strength. But I can assure you Hezbollah has gained more popular support because of what Israel did than it had before the war. The Lebanese are united in opposition to this onslaught.”
I don’t dispute this, but I think their is still a chance to improve the situation greatly. Hezbollah’s burst in popularity is probably somewhat fickle, and changing the situation in Lebanon could quickly erode that popular support.
I would urge Israel to unilateraly end its attacks fairly soon (if signifigant military success can be achieved in the near future this could be slightly delayed) without a cease fire agreement. That might mean a breif period of time when Hezbollah would attack Israel without response, but if Isreal ceased its attacks their would be tremendous pressure on Hezbollah to do the same.
Israel would, and should, make no promises not to resume hostilities is Hezbollah is not disarmed by another force in the near future. Indeed, they should make it clear they will to do so if that condition is not met.
My guess is that this would change the dynamic in Lebanon quite quickly from support for Hezbollah to a demand that that they abandon their military wing, if they don’t comply, their would be support for an outside, non-Israeli force to disarm them.
Either way, a focus of building up the Lebanese Army, who have felt quite humiliated by the current situation, is a key component of long term success.
