Done with Vacation
Sorry for the sudden ending of posting over the last two weeks. I was on vacation and though I had intended to blog, albeit lightly, that simply didn’t happen. As a matter of fact, I barely followed the news.
Still, ignorance in no reason to keep from opining about subjects, if it was most of the blogosphere would disappear instantly.
First on the Israel-Hezbollah ceasefire. I am fairly agnostic about whether this was good or bad. I think, as I have mentioned previously, that Israel made a horrible mistake in not publically trying to ally with the Lebanese government against Hezbollah militants from the beginning. After that failure, I am not sure any ‘win’ was possible. Israel inflicted signifigant damage to Hezbollah’s fighting ability, Hezbollah gained a fair amount of populatity. Which of these will prove more signifigant is hard to say at this point. Lebannon seems to be trying to cease the moment and take advantage of Hezbollah’s military weakness to establish control over all of Lebanon, which would be a good thing, hopefully they will succeed. The international response toward actually building a signifigant multinational force appears to be stillborn to me. Some troops will be deployed as window dressing, but no one seems interested in actually doing any of the dirty work. Most likely, we will see the events of the past few months repeat themselves more or less in a few years, probably with even more loss of life. All in all, an oportunity missed.
Second, on the Bush court loss concerning wiretapps. I have no idea how higher courts will rule on this, many experts seem to thing that the decision was done poorly, but the actual outcome will be the same. My expectation is that whatever the legality of these programs ends up being, they will continue, with new authorization if needed from congress. One thing I think we need to think about is the difference between gathering evidence for a criminal prosecution and gathering intelligence in a military conflict. Fighting terror will of neccesity require both activities, and often the technological mechanisms for both activities will be the same, but even then, I think that there are signifigant differences in how we want to handle the two. I certainly don’t want to see much, if any, erosion of liberty in the first scenario, that would create possibility for serious abuses. The second activity, gathering military intelligence, does seem to require looser standards than the former however, and the neccessity of detecting and prevent attacks whenever possible may require some changes in our concepts of privacy and liberties. So basically, I guess I think that the whole deal is asking the wrong questions. The Bush administration, Congress, and the Courts have all, so far at least, failed to ask how do we treat these two different activities and how we prevent one activity from migrating to another. I am pretty sure that not asking these questions will lead to really bad answers.
On Jon Benet Ramsey. I don’t care.
Thats about all that has penetrated my consciousness over the last couple of weeks. If there is something else signifigant that I should opine on let me know and I will offer up more uninformed speculation.
Regular blogging should now resume.



Dave,
Nice summary - on the Lebanon thing, my feeling is that the whole thing went unfortunately slightly in Hezbollah’s favor, if simply for the fact that mindshare is a lot harder to build than infrastructure/weapons, especially when you have Iran and Syria helping you out.