Justus For All

I think I would have put more emphasis on just when the 12 to 18 months (and let’s just think 18 months here given the current rate of “progress” in Iraq) will expire…

ANd given the prognosis here, even 18 months might be too short…

Does Maliki have any real power to restore order to Iraq?

Most experts say Maliki lacks sufficient power to properly rein in Iraq’s militias and reach a power-sharing agreement. “He doesn’t even have control over his own branch or cabinet, let alone the activities of al-Qaeda, the Kurdish militias, and Sunnis,” Kadhim says. Some say it is not Maliki’s personality but his post that is to blame. “Maliki is not a weak person per se but he is in charge of a very weak institution, the premiership, which does not really have any teeth,” Kadhim says. Adds Nasr: “He faces the dilemma of a prime minister who relies on powerful factions and is hamstrung by a constitution that requires an overwhelming majority [of parliament] to vote and be able to do anything.” Others say he lacks the resources, financial as well as material, to govern well. They point to the difficult task of expecting police to respond to insurgent attacks despite receiving subsistence-level salaries and inadequate equipment

What can Maliki do to tame the sectarian violence?

Very little, experts say, without outside help from the United States. He has sought to establish a national reconciliation conference next month but some experts question whether it will have any impact on sectarian tensions. He has also proposed amnesty to insurgents and ex-Baathists, but only those insurgents without American blood on their hands. “At the end of the day, you have to be an angel to get a pardon,” Kadhim says. “Who are they reserving a pardon for, Sistani?” Experts agree the low-level civil war in Iraq will be won politically, not militarily, but disagree on what is the best political roadmap for Iraq’s future.