EU report: negotiations with Iran will probably fail
The full text of an internal European Union document on Iran reveals that officials from the bloc are pessimistic about the chances of stopping Iran from getting enough fissile material for a nuclear bomb.The reflection paper, written by the staff of Javier Solana, EU foreign policy chief, circulated to the EU’s 27 governments last week, concedes that Iran will probably acquire sufficient capacity to enrich uranium for a weapons programme “at some stage”, adding that the programme has been held back by Tehran’s own technical shortcomings, rather than international pressure.
The document, obtained by the Financial Times and reproduced below, mirrors EU officials’ private comments that, although negotiations with Iran will probably fail, they have to be attempted.
Unsurprisingly, I agree with this analysis. That means we have to decide how bad a nuclear Iran would be, and if we have other options to stop it.
I think a nuclear Iran would be a very, very bad thing indeed. So bad, that I am willing to try quite a few options on the hope that they work. My prefered course would be to avoid any military action, but I think that that is only possible if Iran is absolutely convinced that if they do not abandon this program, military action will follow.
