Justus For All

Pajamas Media

Since the multiple bombings in Shroja market district on the 12th, Baghdad hasn’t seen any major attacks and there’s a tangible decrease in all kinds of attacks.Not only official statements say so (Defense ministry officials said today that attacks are down by 80% in Baghdad). It’s a reality I live in nowadays, at least in my neighborhood and its surroundings. It is also what I hear from friends and relatives in other parts of the city.

We are hearing fewer explosions and less gunfire now than two weeks ago and that, in Baghdad, qualifies as quiet.

I agree with what some experts say about this lull in violence being the result of militants keeping their heads down for a while. It is also possibly the result of the flight of the commanders of militant groups. Grunts left without planners, money or leaders wouldn’t want to do much on their own.

It is of course very debatable whether this is a temporary situation or a permanent  improvement.  My guess is that that depends on the quality of the Iraqi troops that will have to take over as the surge dies down, and that is a very big question and one on which it is quite difficult to gather any hard data on.

I suspect that with a year or so of increased U.S. troop levels following the current strategy we would see definate improvements, and that would be sufficient time for new political forces to take root without the climate of fear that has been hampering them.  The surge won’t last that long though, and whether or not the reduced levels will be sufficient is the top question.