Iowa Guesses
I don’t think anyone can really poll Iowa caucus goers, and more importantly the Iowa process means that even if we could know pretty well who the caucus goers liked, that wouldn’t tell us who would win.
With those things in mind, here are my guesses for the Iowa results.
GOP: Romney, Huckabee, Thompson, McCain, Paul, Guiliani
Democrats: Clinton, Obama, Edwards
On the GOP side, I think that Romney’s organization and a growing realization, even among many Evangelicals, that Huckabee isn’t really very convervative will give him the win. While I don’t expect it, I wouldn’t be shocked to find Huckabee doing even worse then second, my gut is that his campaign is quickly losing its luster, although admittedly this may be wishful thinking. I also think Thompson edges McCain, as a direct beneficiary of people moving away from Huckabee. And for those who say, don’t count out Ron Paul and the ‘youth vote’ my judgement is that the youth vote and fifty cents will get you a cup of coffee (ok, its actually about four bucks for a good cup of coffee now, but you get my point.)
On the Democratic side, its the machine stupid. In the Iowa caucus the machine matters, especially with the arcane rules that the Democrats have there. The machine belongs to Clinton. Also see my comment above for those who are sure that Obama has the famed youth vote. I think Obama still gets second, but Edwards beating him is not outside the realm of possibility either. Edwards has done Iowa before and may well be able to take advantage of that experience.
In any event, those are my guesses and the reasons for them.



The machine belongs to Clinton?
*chuckle* Prepared to eat a little crow Mr. Dave? Obama rocked Iowa. Obviously he’s a slightly stronger candidate than you thought. I hope that his popularity is more than just a fluke in one state, because he is certainly a more worthy candidate than either Edwards or Clinton, and I believe he is a far more worthy opponent for Republican candidates than either Clinton or Edwards.