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Iowa Guesses

7:16 am on Thursday, January 3, 2008

I don’t think anyone can really poll Iowa caucus goers, and more importantly the Iowa process means that even if we could know pretty well who the caucus goers liked, that wouldn’t tell us who would win.

With those things in mind, here are my guesses for the Iowa results.

GOP:  Romney, Huckabee, Thompson, McCain, Paul, Guiliani

Democrats:  Clinton, Obama, Edwards

On the GOP side, I think that Romney’s organization and a growing realization, even among many Evangelicals, that Huckabee isn’t really very convervative will give him the win.  While I don’t expect it, I wouldn’t be shocked to find Huckabee doing even worse then second, my gut is that his campaign is quickly losing its luster, although admittedly this may be wishful thinking.  I also think Thompson edges McCain, as a direct beneficiary of people moving away from Huckabee.  And for those who say, don’t count out Ron Paul and the ‘youth vote’ my judgement is that the youth vote and fifty cents will get you a cup of coffee (ok, its actually about four bucks for a good cup of coffee now, but you get my point.)

On the Democratic side, its the machine stupid.  In the Iowa caucus the machine matters, especially with the arcane rules that the Democrats have there.  The machine belongs to Clinton.  Also see my comment above for those who are sure that Obama has the famed youth vote.  I think Obama still gets second, but Edwards beating him is not outside the realm of possibility either.  Edwards has done Iowa before and may well be able to take advantage of that experience.

In any event, those are my guesses and the reasons for them.

6 Comments »

Comment by Random Gemini

January 5, 2008 @ 1:17 pm

The machine belongs to Clinton?

*chuckle* Prepared to eat a little crow Mr. Dave? Obama rocked Iowa. Obviously he’s a slightly stronger candidate than you thought. I hope that his popularity is more than just a fluke in one state, because he is certainly a more worthy candidate than either Edwards or Clinton, and I believe he is a far more worthy opponent for Republican candidates than either Clinton or Edwards.

Comment by Dave Justus

January 7, 2008 @ 6:05 am

Hmmm, not sure where the hostility is coming from, I thought I made it pretty clear that I was just guessing.

Iowa is typically a surprise, this time the results matched up with the polling, which is unusual.

In any event, I don’t dislike Obama and there are a lot of things I appreciate about him. I like his positiveness, his rhetoric, and his personality. Where I have doubts are his expirience and many of his insticts. In different times I think he would be a very good President, I am not sure he is the man for the challenges we face now.

I believe Obama is a better person the Clinton or Edwards, I don’t think he would be a better President then the former though. It is obvious that his candidacy is for real though, and he is going to present a real challenge for Hillary. It probably depends on whether or not his momentum overcomes her in Florida and then California, there isn’t a lot of time to do that, but nothing suceeds like success.

I however won’t be voting for him should he win the nomination, unless Huckabee somehow wins the Republican side.

Comment by Random Gemini

January 8, 2008 @ 10:43 am

Hostility?

That wasn’t hostility. That was just my glee that you were actually wrong about something (even if it was just a guess). You’re not wrong very often, and I was just having fun with it.

I don’t know who is going to win the Republican nomination at this point, I think that it’s still too early to tell on either side. But with Obama’s numbers leading Hillary by 12 points when I checked last night, I suspect that we’ll see Hillary bowing out of the race come February 5th. Not only because she’s not doing well in the polls, but also because this campaign is clearly taking its toll on her and I’m not sure she can handle being on the road for a year like this. That’s my guess.

Even Glenn Beck has turned off of Mike Huckabee, due to some rather inflammatory comments shot at Mitt Romney over his faith. So I can’t see where you might not want to vote for him, in addition to the fact that some of his policies seem silly.

I’m still not sure who I’ll vote for, but it was a real vindication for me to see two men who were not part of the old guard political engine win in Iowa. It made me feel like voting might actually be worthwhile.

Comment by Random Gemini

January 8, 2008 @ 10:43 am

er um… replace can’t with “can” in the second to the last paragraph. Gotta love typos :-)

Comment by Dave Justus

January 8, 2008 @ 1:04 pm

Yeah a couple of real outsiders those two are. Obama from the Chicago Democratic machine and the Senate and Huckabee having spent time in the Arkansas Governors Mansion like someone else we know.

People who arn’t part of an old guard political engine don’t run for President. Unless you count people like Nader which I don’t.

Comment by Random Gemini

January 8, 2008 @ 9:28 pm

I certainly don’t mean to imply that any of the candidates aren’t politicians that are towing party lines. If they weren’t towing party lines, they wouldn’t have a shot in hell and they would be sitting on the sidelines, like Ralph Nader.

You can sugar coat it any way you like, but you’re right. The reality of politics is that everyone who is a Republican or a Democrat is going to do what they have to do to get the support of their party. They are all part of the old guard political engine, and they have to be if they want to win. That’s the only way to
get elected in this country.

I read an article earlier today that describes the exact sentiment I am referring to when I use the phrase “old guard political engine”. I don’t have an exact quote from the article and the link is long gone, but I’ll try to paraphrase it as best I can.

For twenty years, two families have had the power in this country. Their last names were either Clinton, or Bush. This is the first election in the last half century where an incumbent president or vice-president was not running for office. This is the first election in 50 years where the field is wide open and it’s anybody’s game.

People are tired of electing the same two people, wearing different hats. People want fresh blood. Whether they are really getting that or not is another point of contention, but I believe that what we are seeing so far in this election is the result of that desire. I think the results we’re seeing in Iowa and New Hampshire are proving that.

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