I think though that the similarities of the Republicans will overcome that difference with the base. I think even most Evangelicals will come out for Giuliani (as the two most disparte examples) when it comes to the general, although they will quite possibly be less enthusiastic about it which could matter in get out the vote type efforts.

Of course, independants will be in play, and there is no doubt that some of the candidates have less appeal for independants then others, but that would be the case whether or not that nominee was chosen after a brokered convention or after Iowa and New Hampshire.

All of the remaining top 5 Republicans are much more similar to each other on policy then they are to Clinton or Obama.

Given that each of the Republican candidates seems to be targeting a certain segment of the party base, the question then becomes how they will present themselves when they win the nomination. If that nominee is portrayed, through either the media or the opposition, as just representing a small segment of the population (based on how the candidate played to one segment of the party), that could be a detriment to the Republican candidate.

Of course, I’m speaking from the viewpoint of somebody who doesn’t vote based on party loyalty, and while I know I’m not the only one who votes that way, I really can’t say exactly how many people out there are like that.