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Super Tuesday

8:31 am on Tuesday, February 5, 2008

Well, its looking like the Republican race will be effectively over tonight.  While the early states showed a lot of diversity for the different candidates, pretty much everyone but McCain floundered while the Senator took off.  Unless Romney pulls some sort of upset today, McCain is probably the guy.

In many ways though, I doubt that that matters.  2008 is certainly the Democrats year to lose, and while they have proved adept at snatching defeat from the jaws of victory in the past, I highly doubt that will happen this year.  I expect that pretty much any Democrat beats pretty much any Republican this year.  At the end of the day, the country is ready for a change.

So one the race that probably matters most, it looks pretty interesting.  Most analysts are betting that after tonight Hillary and Obama will still be within 100 or so delegates of each other whichever way the contest swings.  Further, it is looking fairly impossible for either of them to get enough delegates outright to win the nomination without substantial super-delegate support.

It will be interesting to see how the Democratic party handles this.

6 Comments »

Comment by k. pablo

February 5, 2008 @ 9:05 am

It will be interesting to see how the Democratic party handles this.

Two words: Brokered Convention.

Comment by Dave Justus

February 5, 2008 @ 11:05 am

Probably not actually. The Democratic Super delegates will be able to make the decision, but it could be a very ugly thing if the Super Delegates give a candidate with less votes the edge.

Comment by Bob Morris

February 5, 2008 @ 2:07 pm

Whoever ends up winning the Presidency, it will be interesting to see not only what ideas are presented, but how effectively they are presented.

I liked Ronald Reagan not just because he had good ideas (although I’ll admit much of it came to the economy and the scope of the federal government) but because I think he was effective at communicating them. Hopefully whoever wins the Presidency remembers that, while having ideas the voters agree with is good, the way you communicate them helps as well.

Comment by Dave Justus

February 6, 2008 @ 6:22 am

Certainly Reagan was great at inspiring and communicating his ideas. Of the current crop of candidates, only Obama has that same sort of gift, although whether it will be able to reach as deep as Reagan’s, should he win, remains to be seen.

While I admire Reagan for that, and certainly agree that it was what America needed at that time, I don’t know how much we need it right now. Things are really pretty good right now, even our worries about the economy are really worries about whether it will be just ‘pretty good’ instead of ‘great.’ Clearly there is, and remains, and issue with Jihadi terror, but I am not sure that we need soaring rhetoric rather then just plain old vanilla perserverance and good management at this time.

Right now, I happen to think that things are pretty good, while we face challenges they are ones that require patient struggle with rather then radical action. To some extent the calls for ‘change’ leave me pretty cold, since I don’t want any huge changes and would be quite satisified if things mostly stay as they are.

Comment by Eitan

February 6, 2008 @ 4:09 pm

Dave: first of, it’s good to be here(I’m sounding like I either won the Super Bowl or Super Tuesday). But really, good to be here again in the company of great thinkers.

I don’t think that a Democrat victory is a foregone conclusion. Certainly it’s the Dem’s election to lose but both Obama (whom I no longer consider a closet Muslim;) and Hillary are a bit too left for the Democratic party–especially Obama and especially when it comes to economics. There have been moments in American history when a party’s candidate did not meet that party’s agenda. I think this year will be the case if Obama is nominated(and it looks like he will be).

If it’s McCain vs. Obama not only am I voting McCain, I’m giving him a serious chance to take the White House.

Comment by Bob Morris

February 7, 2008 @ 11:52 am

Latest word is Romney is ending his campaign.

http://www.cnn.com/2008/POLITICS/02/07/romney.campaign/index.html

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