Russia’s Invasion of Georgia
Huffington Post interview with Zbigniew Brzezinski
Zbigniew Brzezinski: Fundamentally at stake is what kind of role Russia will play in the new international system. Unfortunately, Putin is putting Russia on a course that is ominously similar to Stalins and Hitlers in the late 1930s. Swedish foreign minister Carl Bildt has correctly drawn an analogy between Putins “justification” for dismembering Georgia — because of the Russians in South Ossetia — to Hitlers tactics vis a vis Czechoslovakia to “free” the Sudeten Deutsch.
Even more ominous is the analogy of what Putin is doing vis-a-vis Georgia to what Stalin did vis-a-vis Finland: subverting by use of force the sovereignty of a small democratic neighbor. In effect, morally and strategically, Georgia is the Finland of our day
I think that the historical analogies are pretty appropriate here. This is an act of aggression from a major power that will probably have a huge effect on the world in years to come. If confronted successfully and stopped, it probably won’t be a very big deal in history, but I suspect that if Russia’s attack on Georgia is allowed to succeed it will be one of the historical spots that people look back to and question how we could be so stupid.
Of course, looking back is generally easier then looking forward. Certainly America should continue to condemn this action and we should enlist allies and build up as strong a coalition as possible. And, as long as we are simply going for some condemnation and perhaps minor economic sanctions I am sure we will have plenty of allies on this. Should that level of effort succeed, everything will be fine.
In all honestly though, it is likely that that won’t succeed. If it comes to really tough economic putative measures, or (and especially) active military involvement, I suspect we will find that the numbers who are willing to support us are far fewer. This is of course especially true if our allies are uncertain as to how willing we will be to actually carry through with whatever actions we prepose. The simple fact, one I’m sure Russia didn’t ignore when contempating this action, is that the upcoming U.S. Presidential elections severly hampers our ability to make a strong response.
Even if President Bush wishes to move ahead strongly, knowing he has less then six months to remain in office, any allies he wishes to enlist in the cause will have to wonder how long they can trust America’s policy to remain the same. Many of our signifigant allies are pretty dependant on Russian energy supplies and they won’t want to risk an action that will just piss Russia off without achieving its goals. This election year worry can be exaggerated by actions of the two candidates. United front strongly condemning this action, and signaling support of signifigant retaliation will minimize this.
This does give us a very interesting chance to judge how both Obama and McCain will react to crisis. So far, McCain’s response has been stronger and I think much better. Ironically, it might also end up being George Bush’s abiding legacy. Terrorism and Iraq have of course been very major events, but the return of an aggressive, expansionist imperial Russia has the potential to completely overshadow them.
“I think that the historical analogies are pretty appropriate here. This is an act of aggression from a major power that will probably have a huge effect on the world in years to come.”
Prophetic words indeed, especially since they should have been written seven years back…
I have pondered long and hard about whether to write about Russia/Georgia. There are many others - obviously including yourself - who are getting stuck into it. I have that niggling feeling that there is something being missed behind all of this.
Something like -
…is there a parallel between this and Iraq - Kuwait. Remember that Georgia broke an agreement to not move forces into Ossetia…
“The Georgian attack on the South Ossetia capital of Tskhinvali on August 8 turned this “frozen conflict,” as diplomats call it, into a hot proxy war.”
Like that Spiegel article says, the conflict “suits” both parties. It gives the Georgians the justification they need to join NATO; it gives Russia the justification for invading to act as “liberator and peacekeeper” and prevent Georgia from joining Europe.
Then you get into the “control the oil” debate; or the “typical commie” line (that you seem to support) without ever seeing the parallels.
As I said, prophetic words that could equally have applied seven years back…
But that is about my limit - so back to you…