Bush accuses Russia over Georgia cease-fire
CNN.com
President Bush said Wednesday that the United States has received reports of Russian actions that are “inconsistent” with Moscow’s statement it had halted military operations in Georgia.
Georgian President Mikheil Saakashvili says Russia has continued to attack the city of Gori.His remarks came amid fears a Russian convoy advance into Georgia, and claims of violations on both sides, has left in tatters a one-day-old agreement by both sides to return to pre-hostility positions.
“The United States and the world expect Russia to honor that commitment,” Bush said, adding that he was concerned over reports of Russian unit movements near the conflict-hit Georgian city of Gori.
Bush said he was sending Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice to France and Georgia to discuss the violence over disputed provinces with Georgia’s borders.
President Bush also said U.S. Defense Robert Gates will oversee a “vigorous and ongoing” humanitarian mission to Georgia involving aircraft and Naval forces. It was not immediately clear when the mission will begin.
This is a pretty strong response, stronger then I had expected. It seems pretty obvious to me that the humanitarian mission is really a trip-wire, designed to make Russia think twice about the chances of any further actions in Georgia really causing the conflict to escalate.
At this point it has become like a game of bluff poker.
Personally, I do not believe that either of Russia or the US can afford to escalate any further.
I don’t think that Putin will blink, but he will settle with Ossetia remaining with Russia rather than being taken by Georgia. That seems to be his primary objective; note here the reason why this might be – one of the main oil pipelines to south Europe passes through Ossetia.
Putin will not blink, simply because he has the right to veto any resolution that the UN might wish to pass on the matter – at the UNSC at the very least. He knows full well that adopting this approach will deflect US (and western public) ire from Russia to the hapless UN.
With GWB’s manouevre he has created the situation where neither US or Russia can afford to blink. If either does, then both will lose.
Georgia will move closer to Europe. Russia will boost its support of Iran in response. Ossetia and Abkhasia will be the losers…