Comments on: Bush accuses Russia over Georgia cease-fire http://www.davejustus.com/2008/08/13/bush-accuses-russia-over-georgia-cease-fire/ None Sine Causa Fri, 09 Jan 2009 13:43:07 +0000 http://wordpress.org/?v=2.5 By: probligo http://www.davejustus.com/2008/08/13/bush-accuses-russia-over-georgia-cease-fire/#comment-760885 probligo Thu, 21 Aug 2008 20:35:11 +0000 http://www.davejustus.com/?p=3194#comment-760885 Over the past week there has been - of course - the Cossack sabre rattling in the ear of Poland. I do not believe that Putin would be that stupid to invade, but we have already seen a propensity for shutting down oil supplies in particular. With winter coming, Putin has only to wait another three months, doing everything to increase the tension levels (and public paranoia) in the west before turning off one or two taps on his side of the border. I think that there are interesting times ahead, and increasing (once again) oil prices. Over the past week there has been - of course - the Cossack sabre rattling in the ear of Poland.

I do not believe that Putin would be that stupid to invade, but we have already seen a propensity for shutting down oil supplies in particular. With winter coming, Putin has only to wait another three months, doing everything to increase the tension levels (and public paranoia) in the west before turning off one or two taps on his side of the border.

I think that there are interesting times ahead, and increasing (once again) oil prices.

]]> By: Dave Justus http://www.davejustus.com/2008/08/13/bush-accuses-russia-over-georgia-cease-fire/#comment-750918 Dave Justus Thu, 14 Aug 2008 12:18:32 +0000 http://www.davejustus.com/?p=3194#comment-750918 I think that fairly likely, although I also think that if Russia stops with the breakaway provinces, that is blinking. Or, quiting while your ahead perhaps. Complete domination of Georgia (not necessarily outright occupation but de facto control) is I think what they were after, along with sending a message that the West can't interfere (or be relied on) in their sphere of influence. It seems that they are being at least partially stymied in that. I think that fairly likely, although I also think that if Russia stops with the breakaway provinces, that is blinking. Or, quiting while your ahead perhaps. Complete domination of Georgia (not necessarily outright occupation but de facto control) is I think what they were after, along with sending a message that the West can’t interfere (or be relied on) in their sphere of influence. It seems that they are being at least partially stymied in that.

]]> By: probligo http://www.davejustus.com/2008/08/13/bush-accuses-russia-over-georgia-cease-fire/#comment-750415 probligo Wed, 13 Aug 2008 22:37:01 +0000 http://www.davejustus.com/?p=3194#comment-750415 At this point it has become like a game of bluff poker. Personally, I do not believe that either of Russia or the US can afford to escalate any further. I don't think that Putin will blink, but he will settle with Ossetia remaining with Russia rather than being taken by Georgia. That seems to be his primary objective; note here the reason why this might be - one of the main oil pipelines to south Europe passes through Ossetia. Putin will not blink, simply because he has the right to veto any resolution that the UN might wish to pass on the matter - at the UNSC at the very least. He knows full well that adopting this approach will deflect US (and western public) ire from Russia to the hapless UN. With GWB's manouevre he has created the situation where neither US or Russia can afford to blink. If either does, then both will lose. Georgia will move closer to Europe. Russia will boost its support of Iran in response. Ossetia and Abkhasia will be the losers... At this point it has become like a game of bluff poker.

Personally, I do not believe that either of Russia or the US can afford to escalate any further.

I don’t think that Putin will blink, but he will settle with Ossetia remaining with Russia rather than being taken by Georgia. That seems to be his primary objective; note here the reason why this might be - one of the main oil pipelines to south Europe passes through Ossetia.

Putin will not blink, simply because he has the right to veto any resolution that the UN might wish to pass on the matter - at the UNSC at the very least. He knows full well that adopting this approach will deflect US (and western public) ire from Russia to the hapless UN.

With GWB’s manouevre he has created the situation where neither US or Russia can afford to blink. If either does, then both will lose.

Georgia will move closer to Europe. Russia will boost its support of Iran in response. Ossetia and Abkhasia will be the losers…

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