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Oil falls below $70 on US recession fears

6:58 am on Wednesday, October 22, 2008

My Way News
Oil prices fell below $70 a barrel Wednesday as investors shrugged off a looming OPEC production cut after company forecasts suggested the U.S. may be headed for a severe economic slowdown that would crimp demand for crude.

Light, sweet crude for December delivery dropped $2.63 to $69.55 a barrel in electronic trading on the New York Mercantile Exchange by noon in Europe.

Besides the obvious downsides of any recession, cheap oil is somewhat worrying because alot of the alternative options being explored, ranging from bio-petro products to oil shale and tar sands extraction are only competive at the $70 plus level.

A lot of capitol has gone into this sort of projects, and if oil remains below this level they will be economic failures, not only preventing their success this time around, but making it that much harder to attract investment next time oil prices begin to rise.  A similar effect happened in the 70s, and at kept investors away from alternatives for a long time.

I suspect that the Saudis, in particular, know this, and are actively trying for just this result.

7 Comments »

Comment by Patrick Lightbody

October 26, 2008 @ 6:44 am

Agree with this. :( I’m in Virginia this week and it’s $2.30 here. Crazy cheap. I was really rooting for $10 oil to get us off our butts and find some technology more efficient than igniting oil on fire to move some pistons, which in turns pushes around a 3000lb chunk of metal enclosing a 180lb person :)

Comment by probligo

October 27, 2008 @ 7:37 pm

I can’t help but wonder just how much of the “price fall” is the result of the credit squeeze hitting the futures traders – you know, the guys who buy cards (sorry, oil) when the stakes are high and pass (sorry, sell) before they make a loss…

Perhaps with those guys missing from the middle and not taking their “profits”, we are seeing the true price.

Comment by Dave Justus

October 28, 2008 @ 5:33 am

The low price is what speculators are paying. They certainly haven’t, and won’t, be missing from the middle.

They also perform a valuable service for the economy by providing stability and certitude that wouldn’t otherwise exist, making commodies less volatile.

Obviously though there was a huge speculative bubble in oil prices.

Comment by probligo

October 28, 2008 @ 9:37 am

“They also perform a valuable service for the economy by providing stability and certitude that wouldn’t otherwise exist, making commodies less volatile.

How so, Dave? “…stability and certitude…” from speculation and market wagers?

How does buying 250,000 tanker load of crude, then having it sail in circles somewhere south of Africa constitute a “stabilisation” of a market?

Why is it neccessary for there to be “profit makers” or “profit takers” sitting between producer and consumer. They add nothing to the value of the product, other than their profit for taking a bet on the price increasing.

Explanation required because that statement is entirely contra-intuitive. It makes no sense. It is water running uphill.

Comment by Dave Justus

October 28, 2008 @ 10:07 am

“How does buying 250,000 tanker load of crude, then having it sail in circles somewhere south of Africa constitute a “stabilisation” of a market?”

I’ve never heard of such a thing. If that is what you think commodoties speculators do, then I can see why the subject confuses you.

Comment by Dave Justus

October 30, 2008 @ 7:15 am

My previous comment to Probligo was unnecessary rude, and I apologize for that.

Here is a pretty good explanation of how futures markets help the economy.

Comment by probligo

October 31, 2008 @ 12:08 pm

Accepted Dave, without reservation.

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