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Oil falls to $55

7:25 am on Thursday, November 13, 2008

The Associated Press
Oil prices slid to near $55 a barrel Thursday in Asia as more bad economic news from the U.S. heightened fears of a severe global downturn that will pulverise demand for crude.

Light, sweet crude for December delivery was down 81 cents to $55.35 a barrel, after falling as low as $55.03, in electronic trading on the New York Mercantile Exchange by midmorning in Singapore.

“There are fears of reduced demand through 2009,” said Victor Shum, an energy analyst at consultancy Purvin & Gertz in Singapore. “Market sentiment is extremely bearish. It seems like there’s nothing that can stop the bears.”

The crude futures contract overnight fell $3.50 to settle at $56.16, the lowest closing price since January 2007, after the U.S. Energy Department slashed its 2009 oil consumption forecast.

Bad news for alternative energy, as this price is probably lower then what most of it can be produced at.  This isn’t all bad news though.  First off, lower energy prices are of course a boon to energy consumers, and secondly, a lot of people we don’t really like such as Iran, Venezuala and to a lesser extent the Saudis and Russians, utilize oil to prop up their autocratic states, low oil prices put a lot of pressure on them.

2 Comments »

Comment by M.C.

November 13, 2008 @ 7:25 pm

Between nuclear, hydro and solar America should be able to produce all the cheap, low environmental impact electricity we need. As far as gasoline for vehicles, I suppose alternative fuels could be found that would be efficient, economically viable and environmentally sound. I agree, it is unlikely they will be developed as long as oil prices are low, nevetheless, personally I cannot lament low fuel prices.

What I would really like to understand, however, is why fuel prices are linked to human emotions rather than the market like other goods. Perhaps someone out there could explain this.

Comment by Dave Justus

November 14, 2008 @ 7:28 am

Hydro power is pretty much tapped out in America, at least the large scale hyrdo. Solar, while of great potential, is still not very economically competitive with other sources. Nuclear is proven technology that can provide power on the appropriate scale, but the regulatory environment is such that it is really hard to build more nuclear plants. That is a problem that we can fix though, and we should focus on doing so.

As for fuel prices being linked to human emotions, they are like every other good in that, beanie babies anyone?

More specifically though, oil prices are controlled by what we expect oil will be worth in the future, which has a lot of guesswork in it and is subject to the same sort of forces that make anything else have a bubble effect. Just like when everyone thought that houses will keep going up, or internet stock is a sure winner, if everyone thinks that oil will be worth more, then for a while it will until suddenly it becomes obvious to everyone that it is overpriced. Add on to that that the high price point stimulates more production and other conditions can decrease demand (a recession being a prime example) and you can have pretty wild swings. I would also guess that the oil speculative bubble was partially fueled by the collapse of the housing market, as capital fled from real estate into oil (hey, this housing thing seems to have crapped out, but look what oil is doing, better get in on that action.)

Bottom line, is people are often willing to pay unreasonable prices for things just because everyone else is doing it. Unfortunately, it is often difficult to tell what is unreasonable, or how unreasonable the price is, until afterwards.

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